“By comparison… Energy’s been up more than 69%.” “Meanwhile, the stock market is still down nearly 12% since the start of 2022. “The Big 5 oil companies – Shell, Exxon, BP, TotalEnergies and Chevron – raked in nearly $200 billion in record profits this past year. “One that will send oil prices skyrocketing to $350 a barrel in the coming years….
“In fact, I believe we’re entering into a new bull market for oil…
“He inadvertently created a nearly PERFECT scenario for oil investors. “You see, while Biden did everything he could to stifle the oil and gas market… “I’ve found a unique new way every American can profit in this market… despite Biden’s misguided actions. I don’t care who you vote for, and your investment portfolio doesn’t really care, either - that’s just a reminder that when you find yourself nodding along or talking to yourself while reading a promo, saying stuff like, “yeah, he’s so right! That’s what I always say!”… whether or not you’re right, about politics or whatever else, you’re probably being played. The first rule of marketing is to establish a rapport with your audience, and telling people what they want to hear is one easy way to do that. That doesn’t mean Green is right or wrong, of course, and I don’t know what his personal political opinion might really be, it’s just a reminder that this kind of talk is marketing. Today his focus is on an energy company, with a good dose of political red meat thrown in to help make a connection with readers (“blame the politicians” is a good way to make readers agree with you… and in the case of investment newsletters, which skew heavily to an older, wealthier, and more Republican-leaning and fiscally conservative audience, that usually means a strong Conservative/Republican stance or a libertarian/government is stupid stance will help sales). Here’s the chart of those three stocks starting when we covered that July 2022 Insider Alert tease (that boring line in the middle, in orange, is the S&P 500, just for context)… We last looked at one of Alex Green’s Insider Alert teases last July, and at the time he was talking about these as mostly shorter-term trades, averaging 90 days or so - he doesn’t say as much about the timeframe with this pitch, but if you had bought those three stocks the results would have been mixed… two of them were pretty disappointing from the jump (a REIT and a bank, so the second half of 2022 was “meh” for them and the first half of 2023 has been terrible), though the third, Carvana, soared quickly before collapsing again, so it might have turned into profits if investors handled that nimbly enough. It’s no surprise that strong insider buying increases a company’s odds of having a good year.
Insiders don’t necessarily have much better stock market timing than you or I do, they screw up sometimes, too, and “typically” doesn’t mean “always,” but they do, at least, know a lot more about the inner workings of the company. Which is a fine strategy, for sure - patterns of insider buying do typically lead to above-average stock performance.
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